Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2014-07-29, nTelos Pavilion were:
Cavern (12, 6.8 shows)
Birds of a Feather (12, 8 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (11, 5.7 shows)
Halfway to the Moon (11, 9.1 shows)
Ocelot (11, 8.9 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (10, 11 shows)
Bathtub Gin (10, 4.9 shows)
Sparkle (10, 13.3 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (9, 7.2 shows)
Yarmouth Road (9, 15.1 shows)
Devotion To a Dream (8, 21.9 shows)
Golden Age (8, 7.4 shows)
Halley's Comet (8, 8.3 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (8, 6.4 shows)
Silent in the Morning (7, 15.6 shows)
Divided Sky (7, 9.3 shows)
Heavy Things (7, 12.9 shows)
Walls of the Cave (7, 8.8 shows)
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing (6, 11 shows)
AC/DC Bag (6, 10 shows)
Prince Caspian (6, 8.1 shows)
Gumbo (6, 12.9 shows)
Funky Bitch (6, 9.3 shows)
Runaway Jim (6, 10.2 shows)
Mound (6, 29.2 shows)
First Tube (6, 6.6 shows)
Maze (6, 7.2 shows)
It's Ice (5, 15.6 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 12.2 shows)
Limb By Limb (5, 11.8 shows)
Split Open and Melt (5, 8.8 shows)
Waves (5, 15.1 shows)
Meatstick (5, 12.9 shows)
Punch You in the Eye (5, 17.5 shows)
Grind (5, 24.3 shows)
Fluffhead (4, 10.4 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 50% of the actual 24-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.