Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2014-07-27, Merriweather Post Pavilion were:
46 Days (13, 4.2 shows)
Cavern (12, 6.8 shows)
Birds of a Feather (12, 8 shows)
Halfway to the Moon (11, 9.1 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (11, 5.7 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (10, 11 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (10, 5.1 shows)
Sparkle (10, 13.3 shows)
Tweezer (10, 5.3 shows)
Sand (10, 4.6 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (10, 5.2 shows)
Free (10, 4.6 shows)
Yarmouth Road (9, 15.1 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (9, 7.2 shows)
Halley's Comet (8, 8.3 shows)
Golden Age (8, 7.4 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (8, 7.8 shows)
Devotion To a Dream (8, 21.9 shows)
Heavy Things (7, 12.9 shows)
Divided Sky (7, 9.3 shows)
Funky Bitch (6, 9.3 shows)
Mound (6, 29.2 shows)
Prince Caspian (6, 8.1 shows)
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing (6, 11 shows)
AC/DC Bag (6, 10 shows)
Limb By Limb (5, 11.8 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (5, 8 shows)
Waves (5, 15.1 shows)
It's Ice (5, 15.6 shows)
Punch You in the Eye (5, 17.5 shows)
Split Open and Melt (5, 8.8 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 12.2 shows)
Wilson (5, 9.3 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (5, 16.8 shows)
Meatstick (5, 12.9 shows)
Grind (5, 24.3 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 38% of the actual 26-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.