Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2014-07-26, Merriweather Post Pavilion were:
Birds of a Feather (12, 8 shows)
Halfway to the Moon (11, 9.1 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (11, 5.9 shows)
Sand (10, 4.6 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (10, 7.1 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (10, 5.2 shows)
Tweezer (10, 5.3 shows)
Sparkle (10, 13.3 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (10, 5.1 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (10, 11 shows)
Julius (9, 9.1 shows)
Stash (9, 6.5 shows)
Halley's Comet (8, 8.3 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (8, 7.8 shows)
Golden Age (8, 7.4 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (7, 5.9 shows)
Divided Sky (7, 9.3 shows)
Lawn Boy (7, 11.3 shows)
Mound (6, 29.3 shows)
Sample in a Jar (6, 9.3 shows)
A Song I Heard the Ocean Sing (6, 11 shows)
Funky Bitch (6, 9.3 shows)
Prince Caspian (6, 8.1 shows)
AC/DC Bag (6, 10 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 12.2 shows)
It's Ice (5, 15.7 shows)
Sing Monica (5, 54.9 shows)
Wilson (5, 9.3 shows)
Fluffhead (5, 10.2 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (5, 8 shows)
Split Open and Melt (5, 8.8 shows)
Limb By Limb (5, 11.9 shows)
Meatstick (5, 12.9 shows)
Steam (5, 7.8 shows)
Punch You in the Eye (5, 17.6 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (5, 16.9 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 38% of the actual 21-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.