Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2013-12-31, Madison Square Garden were:
Ocelot (12, 8.1 shows)
Character Zero (11, 4.6 shows)
Light (10, 5.5 shows)
Funky Bitch (9, 8.9 shows)
Golden Age (9, 7.2 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (9, 5.6 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (8, 6.4 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (8, 15.4 shows)
Halley's Comet (7, 8.3 shows)
Maze (7, 6.9 shows)
AC/DC Bag (7, 9.5 shows)
Wilson (7, 8.7 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (7, 7.6 shows)
Rock and Roll (6, 13.9 shows)
Halfway to the Moon (6, 9.3 shows)
Meatstick (6, 12.4 shows)
Divided Sky (6, 9.1 shows)
Prince Caspian (6, 8 shows)
Good Times Bad Times (6, 19.4 shows)
Bug (5, 10.4 shows)
Runaway Jim (5, 10.1 shows)
Split Open and Melt (5, 8.4 shows)
Water in the Sky (5, 21.2 shows)
Cities (5, 12.4 shows)
Army of One (5, 26.2 shows)
Limb By Limb (5, 11.4 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 11.7 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (5, 7.8 shows)
Loving Cup (5, 11.2 shows)
Roses Are Free (5, 29.7 shows)
NICU (5, 11.7 shows)
Architect (4, 111.5 shows)
Energy (4, 44.6 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (4, 9.7 shows)
Nellie Kane (4, 26.2 shows)
Scent of a Mule (4, 21.2 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 38% of the actual 26-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.