Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2013-12-30, Madison Square Garden were:
Chalk Dust Torture (14, 4.1 shows)
Harry Hood (12, 4.2 shows)
Light (11, 5.5 shows)
Cavern (11, 6.6 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (10, 5.6 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (9, 5 shows)
Bathtub Gin (9, 4.8 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (9, 6.9 shows)
Golden Age (9, 7.2 shows)
Ghost (8, 4.1 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (8, 15.4 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (7, 7.6 shows)
Maze (7, 6.9 shows)
Halley's Comet (7, 8.3 shows)
AC/DC Bag (7, 9.5 shows)
Lawn Boy (7, 10.6 shows)
Prince Caspian (6, 8 shows)
Rock and Roll (6, 14 shows)
Divided Sky (6, 9.1 shows)
Meatstick (6, 12.4 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (6, 7.7 shows)
Good Times Bad Times (6, 19.4 shows)
Halfway to the Moon (6, 9.3 shows)
Roses Are Free (6, 27.9 shows)
Runaway Jim (5, 10.2 shows)
Split Open and Melt (5, 8.4 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 11.8 shows)
Army of One (5, 26.3 shows)
Cities (5, 12.4 shows)
Loving Cup (5, 11.2 shows)
Bug (5, 10.4 shows)
NICU (5, 11.8 shows)
Architect (4, 111.8 shows)
Nellie Kane (4, 26.3 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (4, 9.7 shows)
Energy (4, 44.7 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 40% of the actual 20-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.