Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2013-12-29, Madison Square Garden were:
Harry Hood (13, 4.2 shows)
The Moma Dance (11, 4.5 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (10, 5.6 shows)
Bathtub Gin (9, 4.8 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (9, 6.9 shows)
Golden Age (9, 7.2 shows)
Carini (8, 5 shows)
Ghost (8, 4.1 shows)
Stash (8, 6.3 shows)
Divided Sky (7, 9 shows)
Maze (7, 6.9 shows)
AC/DC Bag (7, 9.5 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (7, 7.6 shows)
Lawn Boy (7, 10.7 shows)
Cities (6, 12.1 shows)
Good Times Bad Times (6, 19.5 shows)
Roses Are Free (6, 28 shows)
Prince Caspian (6, 8 shows)
Rock and Roll (6, 14 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (6, 7.7 shows)
Walls of the Cave (6, 8.6 shows)
It's Ice (5, 14.5 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 11.8 shows)
Bug (5, 10.4 shows)
NICU (5, 11.8 shows)
Split Open and Melt (5, 8.5 shows)
Twenty Years Later (5, 14 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (5, 9.5 shows)
Army of One (5, 26.4 shows)
Loving Cup (5, 11.2 shows)
Heavy Things (4, 12.8 shows)
Architect (4, 112 shows)
Scent of a Mule (4, 21.3 shows)
Show of Life (4, 32 shows)
Nellie Kane (4, 26.4 shows)
Ya Mar (4, 14.5 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 29% of the actual 17-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.