Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2010-12-30, Madison Square Garden were:
Tweezer Reprise (14, 4.7 shows)
Tweezer (14, 4.8 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (13, 4 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (13, 4.9 shows)
Light (13, 5.1 shows)
Fluffhead (12, 7.8 shows)
Ocelot (12, 7 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (11, 5.2 shows)
46 Days (11, 4.4 shows)
Piper (11, 5.5 shows)
Bathtub Gin (11, 4.7 shows)
Golgi Apparatus (11, 9.5 shows)
AC/DC Bag (10, 7.9 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (10, 5 shows)
Free (9, 4.8 shows)
Rock and Roll (9, 10 shows)
Prince Caspian (9, 7.7 shows)
Reba (9, 7.6 shows)
The Moma Dance (9, 4.4 shows)
Joy (9, 12.6 shows)
Halley's Comet (8, 7.5 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (8, 6.4 shows)
Show of Life (8, 18.7 shows)
The Squirming Coil (7, 11.9 shows)
Simple (7, 7.2 shows)
NICU (7, 11 shows)
Tube (7, 5.2 shows)
First Tube (7, 6.6 shows)
Runaway Jim (6, 8.7 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (6, 8.8 shows)
Split Open and Melt (6, 8.8 shows)
Lawn Boy (6, 11 shows)
Cities (6, 10.3 shows)
Punch You in the Eye (6, 13.7 shows)
Maze (5, 6.8 shows)
Water in the Sky (5, 20.6 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 58% of the actual 24-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.