Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2010-08-18, Nikon at Jones Beach Theater were:
Light (14, 4.9 shows)
Harry Hood (13, 4 shows)
Ocelot (13, 6.8 shows)
Chalk Dust Torture (12, 4 shows)
Sample in a Jar (12, 7.2 shows)
Free (11, 4.8 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (11, 4.9 shows)
Stash (11, 6 shows)
46 Days (10, 4.5 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (10, 7.2 shows)
Julius (10, 7 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (10, 10.4 shows)
NICU (10, 10.4 shows)
Bathtub Gin (9, 4.8 shows)
The Squirming Coil (8, 11.6 shows)
Runaway Jim (8, 8.6 shows)
Heavy Things (8, 11.6 shows)
I Am Hydrogen (8, 14.8 shows)
First Tube (8, 6.6 shows)
Punch You in the Eye (7, 13.3 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (7, 11 shows)
Time Turns Elastic (7, 63.7 shows)
Limb By Limb (7, 10.4 shows)
Poor Heart (6, 16.8 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (6, 11 shows)
Silent in the Morning (6, 12 shows)
Split Open and Melt (6, 8.7 shows)
Shine a Light (6, 21.2 shows)
The Horse (6, 15.9 shows)
Sugar Shack (5, 21.2 shows)
The Wedge (5, 6.8 shows)
Undermind (5, 11 shows)
Drowned (5, 31.9 shows)
A Day in the Life (5, 24.5 shows)
Twenty Years Later (5, 14.5 shows)
Party Time (5, 17.2 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 43% of the actual 23-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.