Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2010-08-15, Alpine Valley Music Theatre were:
Tweezer Reprise (14, 4.7 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (14, 6.6 shows)
Divided Sky (13, 7.6 shows)
David Bowie (13, 6.2 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (13, 8.5 shows)
Tweezer (12, 4.7 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (12, 5.6 shows)
Cavern (12, 5.8 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (11, 5.2 shows)
Piper (11, 5.5 shows)
AC/DC Bag (11, 7.7 shows)
Free (11, 4.8 shows)
Rock and Roll (10, 9.7 shows)
Character Zero (10, 4.5 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (10, 7.3 shows)
The Moma Dance (10, 4.4 shows)
Prince Caspian (9, 7.6 shows)
Joy (9, 12 shows)
Heavy Things (8, 11.6 shows)
I Am Hydrogen (8, 14.8 shows)
The Squirming Coil (8, 11.6 shows)
First Tube (8, 6.6 shows)
Ghost (8, 4.4 shows)
Limb By Limb (7, 10.5 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (7, 11 shows)
Water in the Sky (7, 19.3 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (6, 11 shows)
Twenty Years Later (6, 14.2 shows)
Poor Heart (6, 16.8 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.5 shows)
Loving Cup (6, 9.5 shows)
Shine a Light (6, 21.3 shows)
The Wedge (5, 6.9 shows)
Party Time (5, 17.2 shows)
Guyute (5, 22 shows)
Undermind (5, 11 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 76% of the actual 21-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.