Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2010-08-14, Alpine Valley Music Theatre were:
Tweezer Reprise (15, 4.6 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (13, 5.6 shows)
Down with Disease (13, 4.3 shows)
Tweezer (13, 4.7 shows)
David Bowie (13, 6.2 shows)
Cavern (12, 5.8 shows)
AC/DC Bag (11, 7.7 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (11, 5.2 shows)
Piper (11, 5.5 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (11, 6.4 shows)
Character Zero (10, 4.5 shows)
Rock and Roll (10, 9.7 shows)
The Moma Dance (10, 4.4 shows)
Joy (9, 12.1 shows)
Prince Caspian (9, 7.6 shows)
Reba (9, 7.5 shows)
First Tube (8, 6.6 shows)
Alaska (8, 16.4 shows)
Ghost (8, 4.4 shows)
Water in the Sky (7, 19.4 shows)
Back on the Train (7, 5.6 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (7, 11 shows)
Lawn Boy (7, 10.8 shows)
Twenty Years Later (6, 14.2 shows)
Sparkle (6, 14.5 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (6, 11 shows)
Poor Heart (6, 16.8 shows)
Funky Bitch (6, 7.3 shows)
Loving Cup (6, 9.5 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.5 shows)
Guyute (5, 22 shows)
Undermind (5, 11 shows)
The Wedge (5, 6.9 shows)
Tube (5, 5.3 shows)
Foam (5, 21.3 shows)
Simple (5, 7.3 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 38% of the actual 24-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.