Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2010-06-26, Merriweather Post Pavilion were:
Tweezer Reprise (13, 4.6 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (12, 4.6 shows)
Tweezer (11, 4.7 shows)
Piper (11, 5.4 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (11, 6.3 shows)
Cavern (11, 5.8 shows)
The Moma Dance (10, 4.4 shows)
Stash (10, 5.9 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (10, 4.5 shows)
Wilson (10, 7.1 shows)
Joy (10, 11.6 shows)
AC/DC Bag (10, 7.6 shows)
Rock and Roll (9, 9.5 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (9, 10.3 shows)
NICU (8, 10.3 shows)
The Squirming Coil (8, 11.4 shows)
Bathtub Gin (8, 4.7 shows)
Lawn Boy (8, 10.6 shows)
Free (8, 4.8 shows)
Maze (7, 6.7 shows)
Ghost (7, 4.4 shows)
Punch You in the Eye (7, 13 shows)
Poor Heart (6, 16.6 shows)
Back on the Train (6, 5.6 shows)
The Horse (6, 15.5 shows)
Silent in the Morning (6, 11.8 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.6 shows)
Guyute (5, 21.6 shows)
Sugar Shack (5, 20.3 shows)
The Curtain With (5, 26 shows)
Esther (5, 34.2 shows)
The Wedge (5, 6.8 shows)
Beauty of a Broken Heart (5, 46.4 shows)
Drowned (5, 29.5 shows)
Seven Below (5, 20.3 shows)
Let Me Lie (5, 81.1 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 57% of the actual 23-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.