Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2010-06-27, Merriweather Post Pavilion were:
Run Like an Antelope (14, 4.7 shows)
Divided Sky (11, 7.5 shows)
Cavern (11, 5.8 shows)
Sample in a Jar (11, 7.1 shows)
Mike's Song (11, 4.9 shows)
Piper (11, 5.4 shows)
The Moma Dance (10, 4.4 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (10, 4.8 shows)
Joy (10, 11.6 shows)
Wilson (10, 7.1 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (9, 10.3 shows)
I Am Hydrogen (8, 14.8 shows)
The Squirming Coil (8, 11.4 shows)
Bathtub Gin (8, 4.7 shows)
Lawn Boy (8, 10.6 shows)
Ghost (7, 4.4 shows)
Limb By Limb (7, 10.3 shows)
First Tube (7, 6.6 shows)
Maze (7, 6.7 shows)
Punch You in the Eye (7, 13 shows)
Poor Heart (6, 16.6 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.6 shows)
Loving Cup (6, 9.4 shows)
Back on the Train (6, 5.6 shows)
Guyute (5, 21.6 shows)
Esther (5, 34.2 shows)
Halley's Comet (5, 7.5 shows)
The Curtain With (5, 26 shows)
Seven Below (5, 20.3 shows)
Taste (5, 15.1 shows)
Drowned (5, 29.5 shows)
Let Me Lie (5, 81.1 shows)
Beauty of a Broken Heart (5, 46.4 shows)
Party Time (5, 17.1 shows)
The Wedge (5, 6.8 shows)
Undermind (5, 11 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 35% of the actual 20-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.