Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2009-12-28, American Airlines Arena were:
Ocelot (13, 6.5 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (13, 4.4 shows)
Sample in a Jar (12, 6.9 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (11, 4.9 shows)
The Moma Dance (11, 4.4 shows)
NICU (10, 10 shows)
Limb By Limb (10, 9.8 shows)
Bathtub Gin (9, 4.7 shows)
Joy (9, 11.5 shows)
Prince Caspian (9, 7.4 shows)
The Squirming Coil (9, 10.9 shows)
Ghost (9, 4.4 shows)
Alaska (8, 15.2 shows)
Water in the Sky (8, 17.6 shows)
Grind (8, 22.2 shows)
Runaway Jim (8, 8.3 shows)
Let Me Lie (7, 66.7 shows)
Split Open and Melt (7, 8.7 shows)
Sparkle (7, 13.9 shows)
Train Song (7, 30.3 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (7, 10.3 shows)
Poor Heart (7, 15.9 shows)
Tube (7, 5.3 shows)
Waste (6, 12.6 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.5 shows)
A Day in the Life (6, 22.2 shows)
Foam (6, 20.2 shows)
Farmhouse (6, 13.1 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (6, 10.8 shows)
Beauty of a Broken Heart (5, 44.5 shows)
Sugar Shack (5, 20.2 shows)
Brian and Robert (5, 29 shows)
Undermind (5, 10.9 shows)
Drowned (5, 27.8 shows)
When the Circus Comes (5, 20.2 shows)
Horn (4, 15.5 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 27% of the actual 22-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.