Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2009-12-05, John Paul Jones Arena were:
The Moma Dance (11, 4.4 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (11, 8.1 shows)
Limb By Limb (10, 9.8 shows)
The Squirming Coil (9, 10.9 shows)
Bathtub Gin (9, 4.7 shows)
Prince Caspian (9, 7.4 shows)
Ghost (9, 4.4 shows)
Alaska (8, 15.2 shows)
Water in the Sky (8, 17.6 shows)
Grind (8, 22.2 shows)
Runaway Jim (8, 8.3 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (7, 10.3 shows)
Tube (7, 5.3 shows)
Train Song (7, 30.3 shows)
Let Me Lie (7, 66.7 shows)
Loving Cup (7, 9.1 shows)
Split Open and Melt (7, 8.7 shows)
The Wedge (6, 6.9 shows)
Foam (6, 20.2 shows)
Waste (6, 12.6 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.5 shows)
Farmhouse (6, 13.1 shows)
Beauty of a Broken Heart (5, 44.5 shows)
Drowned (5, 27.8 shows)
Undermind (5, 10.9 shows)
When the Circus Comes (5, 20.2 shows)
Sugar Shack (5, 20.2 shows)
Ya Mar (5, 13.6 shows)
It's Ice (4, 14.5 shows)
Good Times Bad Times (4, 15.5 shows)
Birds of a Feather (4, 8 shows)
Gumbo (4, 11.7 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (4, 9 shows)
Horn (4, 15.5 shows)
Bug (4, 10.3 shows)
I Didn't Know (4, 20.8 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 17% of the actual 23-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.