Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2025-12-29, Madison Square Garden were:
Tweezer Reprise (14, 6.2 shows)
Tweezer (12, 6.2 shows)
Carini (11, 5.6 shows)
Sand (10, 5.6 shows)
46 Days (9, 6.9 shows)
Twist (9, 6.2 shows)
Stash (9, 6.2 shows)
Blaze On (8, 6.9 shows)
The Moma Dance (8, 6.9 shows)
Piper (8, 6.9 shows)
Evolve (8, 6.9 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (8, 6.9 shows)
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (8, 6.9 shows)
Fuego (8, 7.8 shows)
Light (8, 6.9 shows)
Character Zero (8, 6.9 shows)
Reba (8, 6.9 shows)
Hey Stranger (7, 8.9 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (7, 8.9 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (7, 7.8 shows)
No Men In No Man's Land (7, 7.8 shows)
Golden Age (7, 7.8 shows)
Bathtub Gin (7, 7.8 shows)
Free (7, 7.8 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (7, 7.8 shows)
Fluffhead (7, 7.8 shows)
Divided Sky (6, 8.9 shows)
More (6, 8.9 shows)
Pillow Jets (6, 10.3 shows)
Back on the Train (6, 8.9 shows)
Maze (6, 10.3 shows)
Wilson (6, 10.3 shows)
Llama (5, 12.4 shows)
What's the Use? (5, 12.4 shows)
Gumbo (5, 12.4 shows)
Runaway Jim (5, 12.4 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 33% of the actual 18-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.