Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2025-12-28, Madison Square Garden were:
Carini (11, 5.7 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (10, 5.7 shows)
Sand (10, 5.7 shows)
Twist (9, 6.3 shows)
The Moma Dance (9, 6.3 shows)
Fuego (9, 7 shows)
Down with Disease (9, 7 shows)
Stash (9, 6.3 shows)
Say It To Me S.A.N.T.O.S. (8, 7 shows)
Slave to the Traffic Light (8, 7 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (8, 7 shows)
Bathtub Gin (8, 7 shows)
Reba (8, 7 shows)
Blaze On (8, 7 shows)
Light (8, 7 shows)
Character Zero (8, 7 shows)
Theme from the Bottom (8, 7 shows)
Evolve (8, 7 shows)
Piper (8, 7 shows)
Free (7, 7.9 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (7, 7.9 shows)
Hey Stranger (7, 9 shows)
Oblivion (7, 7.9 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (7, 9 shows)
Golden Age (7, 7.9 shows)
Taste (7, 7.9 shows)
Run Like an Antelope (7, 7.9 shows)
Divided Sky (6, 9 shows)
Sigma Oasis (6, 9 shows)
More (6, 9 shows)
Wilson (6, 10.5 shows)
Maze (6, 10.5 shows)
Pillow Jets (6, 10.5 shows)
Runaway Jim (6, 10.5 shows)
Monsters (6, 9 shows)
Back on the Train (6, 9 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 47% of the actual 17-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.