Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2014-06-24, Ed Sullivan Theater were:
Run Like an Antelope (13, 5.4 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (13, 5.6 shows)
Possum (11, 4.9 shows)
David Bowie (11, 7.6 shows)
Piper (10, 5.9 shows)
Tweezer Reprise (10, 5 shows)
Tweezer (10, 5.1 shows)
Golden Age (9, 7.2 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (9, 5.6 shows)
Stash (9, 6.3 shows)
Suzy Greenberg (9, 7.8 shows)
Stealing Time From the Faulty Plan (9, 10.6 shows)
Tube (9, 5 shows)
Silent in the Morning (8, 14.4 shows)
Mound (8, 24.8 shows)
Back on the Train (8, 5.7 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (8, 15.4 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (8, 6.4 shows)
Carini (8, 5.1 shows)
The Wedge (8, 6.5 shows)
Walls of the Cave (7, 8.6 shows)
Maze (7, 6.9 shows)
Halley's Comet (7, 8.3 shows)
Meatstick (6, 12.4 shows)
Steam (6, 7.7 shows)
Good Times Bad Times (6, 19.4 shows)
It's Ice (6, 14.4 shows)
Rock and Roll (6, 13.9 shows)
Prince Caspian (6, 8 shows)
Bug (5, 10.4 shows)
Loving Cup (5, 11.2 shows)
Runaway Jim (5, 10.1 shows)
Army of One (5, 26.2 shows)
Roses Are Free (5, 29.7 shows)
NICU (5, 11.7 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (5, 11.7 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 13% of the actual 8-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.