Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2011-09-14, Champlain Valley Exposition were:
David Bowie (16, 6.6 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (15, 4.9 shows)
Mike's Song (14, 5.1 shows)
Character Zero (13, 4.5 shows)
Fluffhead (12, 8.3 shows)
You Enjoy Myself (11, 7.3 shows)
Wilson (10, 7.6 shows)
AC/DC Bag (10, 8.3 shows)
Loving Cup (10, 9.8 shows)
Golgi Apparatus (9, 10.1 shows)
Crosseyed and Painless (9, 10.7 shows)
Reba (9, 7.9 shows)
Show of Life (9, 21 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (9, 11.5 shows)
46 Days (9, 4.5 shows)
Carini (9, 5.1 shows)
Cities (9, 10.3 shows)
Free (9, 4.8 shows)
Makisupa Policeman (8, 28 shows)
Alaska (8, 19.6 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (8, 11.3 shows)
Prince Caspian (8, 7.9 shows)
First Tube (8, 6.6 shows)
Meatstick (8, 11.5 shows)
My Friend, My Friend (7, 8.9 shows)
NICU (7, 11.5 shows)
Runaway Jim (7, 8.9 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (7, 7.5 shows)
Camel Walk (7, 19.6 shows)
Quinn the Eskimo (The Mighty Quinn) (7, 24.5 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (7, 6.5 shows)
Guelah Papyrus (6, 29.4 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (6, 11.3 shows)
It's Ice (6, 14.7 shows)
Punch You in the Eye (6, 14.3 shows)
Joy (6, 14 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 29% of the actual 21-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.