Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2011-01-01, Madison Square Garden were:
Possum (17, 4.3 shows)
Weekapaug Groove (15, 4.8 shows)
Mike's Song (15, 5 shows)
David Bowie (13, 6.4 shows)
Divided Sky (12, 7.9 shows)
Sample in a Jar (11, 7.4 shows)
Cavern (10, 6 shows)
Julius (10, 7.1 shows)
Funky Bitch (10, 7.3 shows)
Prince Caspian (9, 7.7 shows)
Reba (9, 7.6 shows)
Show of Life (8, 18.7 shows)
Joy (8, 12.9 shows)
Loving Cup (8, 9.6 shows)
Tube (7, 5.2 shows)
The Horse (7, 16.2 shows)
Silent in the Morning (7, 12.1 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (7, 10.8 shows)
Heavy Things (6, 12.1 shows)
Simple (6, 7.3 shows)
The Squirming Coil (6, 12.1 shows)
Runaway Jim (6, 8.7 shows)
Split Open and Melt (6, 8.8 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (6, 11.2 shows)
Roses Are Free (6, 15.8 shows)
Twenty Years Later (6, 14.3 shows)
Time Turns Elastic (5, 102.8 shows)
Sugar Shack (5, 22 shows)
It's Ice (5, 14.7 shows)
Sparkle (5, 15 shows)
Drowned (5, 32.5 shows)
Lawn Boy (5, 11.2 shows)
Makisupa Policeman (5, 28 shows)
Walk Away (4, 24.7 shows)
Horn (4, 15.8 shows)
Water in the Sky (4, 21.3 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 47% of the actual 19-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.