Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2009-11-28, Times Union Center were:
Character Zero (13, 4.4 shows)
Backwards Down the Number Line (12, 4.6 shows)
Sample in a Jar (11, 6.9 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (11, 4.4 shows)
David Bowie (11, 6.1 shows)
Stash (10, 5.8 shows)
Punch You in the Eye (9, 12.1 shows)
Also Sprach Zarathustra (8, 5.2 shows)
NICU (8, 10 shows)
Ghost (8, 4.4 shows)
Free (8, 4.8 shows)
Runaway Jim (8, 8.3 shows)
Grind (8, 22.2 shows)
Joy (7, 11.5 shows)
Loving Cup (7, 9.1 shows)
Back on the Train (7, 5.6 shows)
Water in the Sky (7, 17.6 shows)
Silent in the Morning (7, 11.3 shows)
Lawn Boy (7, 10.4 shows)
Rock and Roll (7, 9.4 shows)
Alaska (7, 15.2 shows)
The Horse (7, 14.5 shows)
Tube (7, 5.3 shows)
First Tube (6, 6.5 shows)
Theme From the Bottom (6, 6.5 shows)
Split Open and Melt (6, 8.7 shows)
Heavy Things (6, 11.3 shows)
Taste (6, 14.5 shows)
Sparkle (6, 13.9 shows)
Gotta Jibboo (6, 10.3 shows)
Let Me Lie (6, 66.7 shows)
Poor Heart (6, 15.9 shows)
Waste (5, 12.6 shows)
Beauty of a Broken Heart (5, 44.5 shows)
I Am Hydrogen (5, 14.2 shows)
Boogie On Reggae Woman (5, 10.8 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 45% of the actual 20-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.