Trey's Notebook
Based on the last year of data, the most likely songs to have been played at 2010-08-10, Telluride Town Park were:
Run Like an Antelope (15, 4.7 shows)
Kill Devil Falls (14, 5.6 shows)
Golgi Apparatus (14, 8.7 shows)
Sample in a Jar (13, 7.1 shows)
Divided Sky (12, 7.6 shows)
Fluffhead (11, 7.6 shows)
Wolfman's Brother (11, 4.5 shows)
NICU (10, 10.4 shows)
Free (10, 4.8 shows)
Joy (10, 11.9 shows)
Bouncing Around the Room (9, 7.3 shows)
Water in the Sky (8, 18.9 shows)
The Squirming Coil (8, 11.5 shows)
Time Turns Elastic (8, 53.5 shows)
Heavy Things (8, 11.5 shows)
Alaska (8, 16.5 shows)
Lawn Boy (8, 10.7 shows)
I Am Hydrogen (7, 14.9 shows)
Loving Cup (7, 9.4 shows)
Maze (7, 6.7 shows)
Sparkle (7, 14.3 shows)
Punch You in the Eye (7, 13.1 shows)
Back on the Train (7, 5.6 shows)
Runaway Jim (7, 8.7 shows)
Limb By Limb (6, 10.5 shows)
Funky Bitch (6, 7.4 shows)
The Horse (6, 15.7 shows)
Silent in the Morning (6, 11.9 shows)
Halley's Comet (6, 7.6 shows)
Wading in the Velvet Sea (6, 11.1 shows)
Sugar Shack (5, 20.7 shows)
Split Open and Melt (5, 8.8 shows)
Drowned (5, 30.6 shows)
Party Time (5, 16.9 shows)
Undermind (5, 11.1 shows)
Shine a Light (5, 21.4 shows)
How did "Trey's Notebook" do? We properly anticipated 45% of the actual 22-song setlist. Songs in green were guessed correctly.
The number in parentheses is the number of times the song has been performed in the last year, followed by the average gap in the last year
Explain!
This data is generated using the following rules: first, we analyze the songs played in the last year. From there, we examine the most frequently played songs that have not appeared in the last 3 shows that count "for stats purposes." Those songs are then listed above. We also include the average show gap for each of these songs, which might help better explain the likelihood of a song's appearance.